Table of Contents
Preface ix
Acknowledgments xiii
1 The Changing Landscape of Global Consumption 1
Focus of the Book 2
Key Findings 3
2 Projecting Growth in Populations and Incomes 7
Estimates and Projections of Population and Income 7
Reliability of Long-Run Projections of Economic Growth and Population 10
Alternative Scenarios for Economic Growth Projections 13
Appendix 2A Sources of Data Used to Project Economic Growth 15
3 Measuring Income Distribution within Countries 29
How Do Economists Measure Inequality? Key Concepts and Issues 30
Recent Trends in Within-Country Inequality 33
Relationship between Inequality and Development 35
Projections of Within-Country Inequality 37
Appendix 3A Household Survey Data Used in the Analysis 43
Appendix 3B Methodology for Adjusting the Data 57
4 Global Income Distribution from the Turn of the Century to 2035 81
How Do Philosophers Think about Global Inequality? 81
Estimating Global Inequality: Key Concepts and Issues 83
Global Inequality in 2003, 2015, and 2035 85
Geographic Distribution of World Population by Income 92
Sensitivity of Projections of Global Inequality 96
Benefits of Using Individual-Level Data 100
Taking Stock and Next Steps in the Analysis 101
Appendix 4A Creating a Global Distribution from Within-Country Distributions 103
5 How Will Changes in Population and Income Distribution Affect Global Consumption? 107
How Do Rising Incomes Affect Individual Economic Choices? 108
New Estimates of Impact of Rising Incomes on Spending Choices 111
Projected Spending on Food and Transportation 116
6 Projected Demand for Transportation Infrastructure through 2035 121
Projecting Demand for Paved Roads and Railroads Based on Past Patterns 122
Financing Investment in Infrastructure and Ensuring Value for Money 126
7 How Will Countries Build the Infrastructure They Need? 129
Should Policymakers Make a Big Push for Infrastructure Investment? 129
Creating Room in Fiscal Policies for Public Financing of Infrastructure Investment 130
Facilitating Private Sector Financing of Infrastructure Projects 133
Managing the Risks to the Public Sector from Private Sector Financing 136
Improving Public Procurement Procedures and Preventing Corruption and Fraud 137
Creating Incentives for Climate-Friendly Infrastructure 138
8 Challenges from Rising Consumption in the Next 20 Years 141
Reducing Inequality 142
Boosting Infrastructure Investment 143
Preserving the Sustainability of Consumption Growth through International Cooperation 144
References 147
Index 157
Tables
2A.1 Summary of sources of GDP growth projections 16
2A.2 Economic growth and population projections, by economy, 2015-35 17
